Christchurch Market Update

The Christchurch market place for residential properties, both sales and rental one year post earthquake is clearly divided into 2 markets. 

The Central City, Eastern and Hill suburbs, with low enquiry making sales and letting difficult to obtain.

The contrast in the North and Western suburbs plus the outer districts is opposite, lack of properties available for sale and rent putting upward pressure on house prices and rents. 

It has been difficult to obtain a clear trend and population movements with an initial exodus of approximately 26,000 according to election role stats.

The red zone property owners are now receiving the Crown offer to purchase their properties that is now 6,000 people who will be making housing decisions over the next 9 months, building, buying, renting or moving outside Christchurch.

The sales market in the least affected areas are experiencing strong inquiry from first home buyers, people transferring to Christchurch and Red Zone buyers, creating multi offers and excellent auction clearances.

In the rental market available properties are below pre-earthquake levels again, with strong enquiry on homes in the least affected areas with rents firming.   The opposite is happening in the eastern suburbs with low enquiry and difficulty attracting tenants.

Insurance, or inability to obtain cover is a major issue.  Insurance companies are not taking on new business exposure in Christchurch; the only cover obtainable is through assignment of a policy or renewal.  This is okay for existing properties where the income owner has a good credit rating, but for new builds and tenants seeking contents insurance the current situation makes it extremely difficult to obtain cover. 

What has become very apparent is the Christchurch rebuild will take many years but the high amount of resources input from insurance, local bodies, private sector and Government will see a sustained strong Canterbury economy.

Market Comment July/August 2011

In reviewing the residential sales for Canterbury in the 2nd Quarter of 2011, April and May showed a good increase in activity and sales post February and March. The aftershock on 13th June 2011 saw sales volume figures for June 2011 decline, unlike the periods following September 2010 and February 2011, this was less significant.

 When peeling back the sales statistics we still have two distinct markets in the City, plus the outer districts of Selwyn and Waimakariri to illustrate this.

 Number of House Sales                          June 2011                              June 2010

 Hill, Central & Eastern Suburbs          87                                              231 

North & Western Suburbs                      175                                            242 

Selwyn Districts                                         36                                              40

Waimakariri                                                 79                                              59

 The sales market activity increased significantly following the Government’s announcement on 23rd June to purchase Red Zone residential properties. This Government decision has given 5000 people the opportunity make future housing decisions.

 The owners of Red Zone residential properties are considering future housing options, this is evidenced by increased website inquiry, greater open home attendance and subsequent written sales.

 The finalisation of assessments in the orange and white zones will create a steady stream of people who will be able to also make decisions.

 Demand for homes in the North and West of Christchurch is putting pressure on supply. New properties coming to the market are attracting strong interest.

Tony McPherson

Director

Ray White AJ McPherson & Associates Ltd

Licensed (REAA 2008)

McPherson Property Management – Christchurch Update

23 June 2011

Christchurch Update

The government announcement today has given some of the people in the worst affected areas the opportunity to make decisions about their homes and a choice to move on.  CERA has set up a website to advise on the classification of land.  You can view this site at http://www.landcheck.org.nz/

The aftershocks continue causing some minor damage to properties closer to the epicentres of these events.  The greatest impact is of a psychological nature, people living and working in an environment with a constant level of underlying stress of wondering, where and how strong, the next aftershock will be.

Since September 4, 2010 Cantabrians have experienced over 7000 aftershocks, the resilience showing by the majority of the population is remarkable.  Some of our tenants are struggling to cope with living in Christchurch and are choosing to leave if they can.

We are having requests from some tenants seeking reductions in rent for loss of amenities.  The majority of owners have made concessions where these requests were genuine.   MPM have not been to the Tenancy Tribunal in relation to a loss of amenities hearing, but we have anecdotal reports of some significant rent reductions being ordered.

The Residential Rental Market in Christchurch is in 2 distinctive parts.  The North and Western area has good activity with properties in demand.  The Eastern Suburbs have rental properties available and many with only minor cosmetic damage but with little or no enquiry.   Depopulation is a factor but difficult to define the level and trend.  Canterbury University is projecting a reduction of 1500 students for the 2012 year which could impact on those specialising in student accommodation.

I thank our team who continue to function extremely efficiently in these challenging times in the role of custodian of your asset.  I thank you for your patience and understanding of the process’s we are going through and seek a continuation of this understanding.

Tony McPherson

McPherson Property Management

Temporary housing going ahead in eastern suburbs

The Christchurch City Council website has posted information regarding the temporary housing being built in Linwood.  With prices comparable to existing rental property stock and floor areas significantly smaller, is it worth it?

For more information about the temporary housing click here

Earthquake Update 14 June 2011

Yesterday’s twin aftershocks have again caused further damage to infrastructure, buildings and some personal injury.

At McPherson Property Management we reactivated our disaster management system. As communications returned late yesterday we received some reports of damage but certainly not the levels of September and February events. Any serious damage your property manager would have or will soon be in direct contact with you.

Our systems and processes around disaster management are now well practiced and refined. We will keep you updated immediately we have any reports of property damage.

The psychological cost is mounting for some but a strong Cantabrian resilience is still prevailing  

Kind Regards

McPherson Property Management

Short Term Housing Requirements

The short term housing requirements in Christchurch is difficult to ascertain with accurate data on depopulation not available. There is anecdotal evidence of residential properties coming to the sales and rental markets due to people leaving Christchurch. The reasons are varied employment relocation, job loss, seeking employment opportunities outside Christchurch and psychological reasons dealing with the ongoing aftershocks.

The only factual date we have is around availably of residential rental properties. Trademe have stated that in the first week of June 2011 there were 27% more rental properties available then pre 22 February 2011.

 McPherson Property Management rental properties available are at 3.6% which is around our normal vacancy rate. The period immediately following 22 February the vacancy rate was approx 1%.

 The city is a market of 2 halves, both for rental and sales. The north and west of the city rental vacancy rates are less than 1% with good demand.

 The inner city suburbs certainly and eastern suburbs has a far higher vacancy rates, low inquiry 11 June 2011. Trademe had 546 residential rentals available in the eastern and inner city suburbs plus an additional 204 in the inner city.

 Our concern is that the areas where temporary housing is being constructed or planned is in the same areas where there is already a good supply of existing rental properties.

 We believe that some of these properties may be included in the pool of temporary accommodation. We see there is a potential to distort the rental market with a greater over supply.

 I accept that too many properties seconded to temporary accommodation would create a shortage and put upward pressure on rentals.

 The reality, major reconstruction is some time off.  Current work is in demolition, heating replacement and residential repairs (more of a cosmetic and minor structural nature) largely from the September quake.  We see evidence that some of this work is not surviving aftershocks.

 The inward flow of labour for reconstruction should be less difficult to project. The hardest projection is depopulation as insurance payments diminish the steady flow of redundancies and ongoing psychological pressure of living in a disaster zone and ongoing aftershocks.

 Recovery requires clear and decisive action but not knee jerk reaction. Red zone access for business, (especially records) and the camper van saga do not help morale.

The last thing we would want is mortgagee sales of residential investment properties in the eastern suburbs through vacancies while resources are poured into temporary housing. There has been an unofficial moratorium on mortgage sales but there is an end to mortgage holidays and reality will prevail.

 This was written prior to today’s events 13 June 2011, the depopulation factor will only increase.

13 June 2011

Tony McPherson

Over supply of rentals in Christchurch and they are still building temporary housing. Why?

What we have seen for a while has finally hit the media. Click here to read the article in todays Christchurch Press. 

Would money be better spent on assisting with rent payments or transport costs and encouraging people to rent currently vacant houses?

Property Surplus and Rent Decreases?

Check out this article from today’s Christchurch Press.  It has a different opinion from previous media reports since the February 22 Earthquake but in our experience this is more where the market is situated.

Future Christchurch

The next period of future Christchurch is exciting, the ideas and concepts of the rebuild and the level of community participation in this process is pleasing to see.

The appointment of Roger Sutton to lead Cera (Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority) is an inspired choice, his personality and action displayed during the restoration of electrical supply services was outstanding.

Whichever way the city evolves in relation to a rebuilt CBD, the future growth trend will be towards the west. Our Ray White – McPherson Group offices are positioned geographically to service this trend.

Initially all the vacant business and retail sites were quickly occupied in the Riccarton – Hornby area, now we are seeing many of the weaker businesses in these areas being replaced by stronger ones relocating from the CBD.

Obviously these relocations are more than a short term solution. How the northern and western commercial areas evolve over the medium/long term is interesting as this will impact further on the residential development west.

Our latest Residentail Sales stats clearly show that sales activity in Selwyn is close to levels of 2007, the trade area of Ray White Rolleston. The north and west, Ray White Metro’s and Ray White Hornby’s trade areas, have recovered to 80% of the pre quake levels and compared with current National sales volumes, excluding Auckland, is not far off the mark.

Tony McPherson

Market Comment – May

Residential Rentals

 The residential rental market two months on from February’s event has been through quite a cycle with current residential rentals available on Trade Me, approx 1400, which is above pre earthquake numbers. 

 Trade Me is one of the parameters we use to gauge the available rental supply, along with our own statistics.  As in sales it requires a deeper analysis of numbers to portray the real picture.

 Many of the properties available in Christchurch are not the type or location that potential tenants are seeking. 

 Post earthquake we saw a huge demand with available property numbers dropping to record lows. 

 In the last month we have experienced a slowing of demand.

As we state in many of our communications “well presented properties in sought after locations are always in good demand”

 

Residential Sales

 The property market two months on from 22 February events is showing a gradual return of sales activity in Canterbury.

 To obtain a truer picture of what is happening in the residential market place it can be catagorised into 3 distinct areas.

 1. The Hill, Central and Eastern suburbs: 40 sales in March 2011 compared with 231 in March 2010.

 2. The North and Western parts of the city: 153 sales in March 2011 compared with 364 in March 2010.

 3. The Selwyn District: 56 sales in March 2011 compared with 37 in March 2010.

This clearly illustrates the varying levels of sales activity.

 As stated in our previous report, sales volumes within many parts of Christchurch City are below levels to confidently define trends.

 We reiterate our earlier comments on “Where the market is heading to?” We do not have a crystal ball. There are factors of de-population housing stock destroyed and the effect of demolition and reconstruction labour force arriving into the city, will determine market trends.

Tony McPherson

Director

Ray White AJ McPherson & Associates Ltd Licensed (REAA 2008)